דולר אמריקאי בסכנת תגובת ברך לאחר הדפסת שיא מרץ טרי

• The US Dollar falls flat after its two-day rally.
• Traders are left behing clueless on what to do next with this very mixed data.
• The US Dollar Index broke fresh highs for March, though falls back at opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) retreats from its earlier fresh highs for March after the Greenback rallied on comments from Fed Board Member Christopher Waller who pulled the plug on a June interest-rate cut. The Greenback is rolling through the markets and is up against every major G20 peer. Markets are heading into the direction of fewer and later rate cuts while the economy and inflation flair up.

The very packed economic calendar for this Thursday is leaving its marks with the Continuing claims contradicting the upbeat US Gross Domestic Product print. This makes traders nervous with data points diverging and not painting a clear picture. More data from the Unversity of Michigan numbers and Purchase Managers Index from Chicago does not look to bring any clarity for now.

Daily digest market movers: No clear signal

• The first batch of data has been released:
  • The US Gross Domestic Product final reading for Q4:
    • Headline GDP went from 3.2% to 3.4%.
    • The GDP Price Index  remained unchanged at 1.7%.
    • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures retreated a touch from 2.1% to 2%.
  • This week’s Jobless Claims:
    • Initial Claims remained stable at 211,000.
    • Continuing Claims jumped higher to 1.819 million, coming from 1.795 million. 
• The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for March went from 44 to 41.4.
• Final reading for the University of Michigan for March:
  • Consumer Sentiment jumped from 76.5 to 79.4.
  • Consumer Inflation expectations retreated from 2.9% to 2.8%.
• The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index for March will be released at 15:00 GMT, and was previously at 3. No forecast is available.
• US equities are trading flat still in the aftermath of the US GDP and Jobless claims print. 
• על פי כלי ה-FedWatch של קבוצת CME, הציפיות לפגישת הפד ב-1 במאי עומדות על 94.8% לשמירה על ריבית הקרן הפד ללא שינוי, בעוד שהסיכויים להורדת הריבית עומדים על 5.2%.
• שטר האוצר האמריקאי ל-10 שנים נסחר בסביבות 4.21%, לעומת 4.18% מוקדם יותר השבוע. 

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Now what?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) got fired up by Fed’s Waller overnight after the official pushed back against June rate cut expectations and obliterated any hopes for cuts from the US Federal Reserve before the summer. US Dollar bulls chased the DXY higher on the back of it, which results in a fresh high for March and the February highs are coming into reach now. Should the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index bear a red hot inflation label again, expect for the DXY to quickly reach 105.00 and higher. 

That first pivotal level for the DXY at 104.60 has been broken, where last week’s rally peaked.  Further up, 104.96 remains the level to beat in order to tackle 105.00. Once above there, 105.12 is the last resistance point for now before the Relative Strength Index (RSI) will trade in overbought levels. 

תמיכה מהממוצע הפשוט של 200 יום (SMA) ב-103.75, ה-SMA של 100 הימים ב-103.48, וה-SMA של 55 הימים ב-103.72 אינם מסוגלים להראות את חשיבותם כתמיכה מכיוון שהסוחרים לא חיכו לירידה לאלה. רמות לתפנית. נראה שהנתון הגדול של 103.00 יישאר ללא עוררין לאורך זמן, לאחר שהירידה בעקבות פגישת הפד בשבוע שעבר התהפכה לפני שהגיעה אליו.